2018 Oscars | Opinions, Picks and Predictions

| On

By Claire.

Today are the 90th Academy Awards. As I’ve mentioned before, I love Awards Season. I take it incredibly seriously, and it’s all I live and breathe January through to February each year. While I enjoy the Globes and the SAGs, the Oscars are the big one (and my favourite!)

This year, the Oscars are in March and it feels like Awards season has dragged on for so long. In reality, it’s just a week later than last year. But still, I was so excited, energised, and if we’re being honestly, just a big ball of anxiety and bafflement at the start.

After the Golden Globes, I was so annoyed at Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning everything, at Gary Oldman winning. This happened again at the SAGs, and again at the BAFTA's. Now, I feel old and weathered and exhausted.

When will I return from war?

I will get into why I’m hating at Three Billboards and Oldman later, but these emotions were strong, because I was passionate. This year in particular means so much to me.

It is no secret that I love Greta Gerwig, and what Lady Bird means to me. Greta is nominated for two awards: one is Best Director, making her the 5th woman overall to be nominated for that category. The other is Best Original Screenplay, which, as an aspiring screenwriter is exciting all in itself. The film is also nominated for an additional three awards, including Best Picture.

In addition to Lady Bird, we have Call Me By Your Name. I haven’t written about this film on here yet, mainly because I haven’t had the right words to convey. This film is stunning. It has taken over my life. I have seen it three times in cinema, and it still shakes me to my very core every time. CMBYN has been nominated for five awards, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Song and Best Lead Actor.

I love this movie, and I want it to win everything. However, I know this probably won’t happen. I like to think the Academy is changing. This is due to a new round of younger, more diverse voters, Moonlight’s win last year, and because I didn’t write an angry react post about this year’s nominations, because I am actually quite happy with them (for the first time in my life). However, I don’t have that much faith in the Academy.

To be honest, I would be happy to see CMBYN win Adapted Screenplay, and anything else would be a bonus (even though Sufjan Steven’s original and Oscar nominated song ‘Mystery of Love’ can bring me to tears, and Luca Guadagnino is a beautiful director).

But let’s get down to business:

So, who do I want to win?

(Highlighted are who I want to win, not necessarily who I think will win)


Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Frances McDormand will probably win, and I will admit, she was the best part about Three Billboards, but god, I hope Saoirse Ronan does. I mean, this is her third Oscar nomination, and she’s only 23. She will get more nominations, but her portrayal of Christine ‘Lady Bird’ McPhearson was so natural, complex, and reflective. Ronan affords teenage girls the space to be taken seriously as complex human beings, and she did really well. So yeah, it’s not your traditional Oscar winning role, but it doesn’t mean it is not deserving.

A similar argument can be said for Lead Actor.


Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

After the Screen Actor Guild Awards, where Gary Oldman beat out Timothée Chalamet yet again, I said If Timothée doesn’t win Best Actor at the Oscars, I’m going to flip a table Armie Hammer in The Man From U.N.C.L.E style.

Gary Oldman has been winning, and I haven’t seen Darkest Hour, so this is just me being petty, I guess, but portraying Winston Churchill isn’t anything new. So many people have done it. Maybe he was really good, though. He must have been to receive the Golden Globe, SAG and BAFTA for it. But the Academy loves a War story.

Obviously, I want Timothée to win. As Elio, he masterfully combines subtlety, deep emotion, comedic timing, as well as the ability to bring an entire cinema to tears with a single shot. The kid has serious acting chops. Honestly, he deserves it. But he is also so young. He has an illustrious career ahead of him, and he might win in the future. But instead of awarding people after they have had a long career, how about we give them awards when their performance deserves it?

This all being said, I would also be incredibly happy if Daniel Kaluuya wins. He was awesome in Get Out. Also, I’m a big fan in young people in the industry at the moment, these old guys have had their chance, let’s support the new generation, ja? (How Millennial of me).


Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

I have seen I, Tonya, and yes, Allison Janney was good, and she will probably win, again, like she has won every other award this season. BUT LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT LAURIE METCALF AND MARY J. BLIGE.

Laurie Metcalf as Saoirse Ronan’s mother in Lady Bird was fantastic. She deserves an Oscar for her eye twitch after Lucas Hedges says “Lady Bird always said she lived on the wrong side of the tracks, and I thought that was just a metaphor, but there are actual train tracks.” Also, the moment when she drops Lady Bird off at the airport at the end of the film. Y’ALL.

I feel like not many people have seen Mudbound. It is a Netflix film, so it didn’t have a theatrical release, and this is probably why it hasn’t been receiving as much recognition as it deserves. Mary J. Blige was so unrecognisable in this film, in a fantastic way, and if this film was released theatrically, she would be a bigger contender, I swear to you. Mudbound is a typical Oscar film (American history, war, and racial tensions), let’s be real, here.


Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Sam Rockwell is probably going to win. I hope he doesn't. There’s a lot wrong with his character, literally known as a racist cop. This racism is never punished or effectively dealt with, and when you’re introduced as a cop who tortured an African American person in custody, you need to deal with that, don’t just later redeem him by making him a half-baked redemption arc. Sure, this characterisation comes out of Martin McDonagh’s script, but the Oscars are political, and this isn’t the role which needs to be awarded right now.

This being said, without a nomination for Armie Hammer (snubbed! Oliver was his best role yet, and I’ve seen all his films), I don’t have any particularly strong opinions about this category. I loved The Florida Project, so let's go for Willem Dafoe. Sam Rockwell will most likely win, but I won’t be happy about it.


“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Here, I'm rooting for Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, or Guillermo del Toro. I would especially love if Gerwig won (I will most likely breakdown and cry), and I also love Peele, and what he did with Get Out. However, GDT did win the Globe, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he won, and rightly so.

Gerwig or Peele, though, would be my wildest dreams.


“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME. That script was beautiful, and a faithful adaption of the book. I want it to win, and I think it will win.


“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Of course, I want Greta Gerwig to win. I feel like this one is hard to gauge. Martin McDonagh won the Globe (ugh), but I am really rooting for Lady Bird and Get Out at the Oscars. I LOVED The Big Sick, and I am so excited that it has been nominated, but I do not see it winning – but if it did it would be such a plot twist!


“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins
“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel
“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison
“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

I’m going to talk about cinematography for a moment, because Rachel Morrison is the first woman to be nominated for Cinematography, ever. With Mudbound, she was able to make the dusty, muddy and bleak setting look beautiful. This is not an easy feat, and could have made the film boring, but instead, it is a feast for the eyes. She is brilliant at what she does. Speaking of, she is also the cinematographer for Black Panther. Like I said, she is brilliant.

And like, because the Academy isn’t kind to women, I guess The Shape of Water or Dunkirk were pretty to look at, too.


“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Here we are, the big one.

I have seen all Best Picture nominations, bar Darkest Hour. This is because yet another portrayal of, and film about Winston Churchill just does not interest me.

Dunkirk was good, but it came out so long ago. It’s Nolan and about WWII so it gets an automatic nomination. I love movies about journalism, but The Post wasn’t phenomenal. That being said, it was such a great debut feature script by Elizabeth Hannah.

For Best Picture, I’m rooting for Lady Bird, Get Out, and Call Me By Your Name.

What has a large chance of winning, though, is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and I really hope it doesn’t. The film was awarded Best Picture – Drama at the Globes, best performance by a Cast at the screen actors Guild Awards and Best Film at the BAFTA’S. And yes, this is an Oscars Film: A lone wolf seeking justice, battling the ineffective police system. With the persecution of rape being a major issue in the world, Three Billboards definitely touches a nerve. I was even affected after seeing it, posting on social media that the film is incredible and highly recommending that everyone see it. That being said, throughout the film I had an unsettled feeling, and it wasn’t until later that I figured out why.

Three Billboards thinks its saying something profound, without really saying anything at all. We are swept up by images of large billboards, Molotov cocktails, and a hardened badass woman in coveralls and a bandana, but nothing is truly engaged with. Tim Parks for The New Yorker calls this the “feel-good fallacy.” Another critique of Three Billboards is it’s racism. This sits largely with Sam Rockwell’s character, which I touched on earlier. Beyond Rockwell’s racist cop, the entire police force is racist, homophobic, or both, which is thrown around in dialogue multiple times, but never held accountable.

Due to its murky racism and politics, yet having received so many awards, it is a large possibility that Three Billboards will be this year’s Crash to Call Me By Your Name. Back in 2006, everyone knew Brokeback Mountain was supposed to win Best Picture, but Crash swept in and won instead.

But then there is me, hopelessly optimistic, thinking Three Billboards might be La La Land instead, wining the acting awards, with Call Me By Your Name or Get Out sweeping in to take Best Picture. Get Out does more as a social critique of America than Three Billboards does.

However, Lady Bird, Call Me By Your Name and Get Out are unconventional Oscar winners. Lady Bird, as a film about a teenage girl, written and directed by a woman, and Get Out, a horror film were white people are the villain, are unprecedented. Call Me By Your Name, is subtle and beautiful and visceral. Of course, so is Moonlight, but do we honestly think the Academy will award a film about gay men two years in a row?

With this in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if The Shape of Water wins. Not my usual kind of film, but I was pleasantly surprised. It was like a fantasy, greener version of Amelie. Once we get past the whole Sexy Fish Man and Sally Hawkins Fall In Love and Have Sex weirdness, what this story truly is about is capturing those who are outcasts and feel like they are alone in the world, finding a connection. It was a gorgeous film, with fab old Hollywood musical elements and I realise that if you haven’t seen the film this might all sound so weird, but it was great. I would be so happy for it to win.

I like to hope the Academy is changing. People think the Oscars are antiquated, but to that I just say we should change what an Oscar Film looks like. Change what an Oscar Winner looks like, shake it up, keep it relevant and diverse. We can only hope this is the direction the Academy is heading, but we will have to see how today goes.

Be First to Post Comment !
Post a Comment